How Often Businesses Close and Change Numbers: Understanding Data Decay
Business data decays faster than most people realize. Phone numbers change, emails bounce, businesses close their doors forever. Understanding these decay rates is essential for maintaining effective outreach and planning your data strategy.
The Reality of Business Data Decay
The Inconvenient Truth
Business contact data has a shelf life. It is not a permanent asset that you buy once and use forever. From the moment you acquire a lead list, the clock starts ticking. Every day, some of that data becomes less accurate, less useful, and eventually worthless.
This is not a flaw in data providers. It is a fundamental characteristic of business information. Understanding this reality helps you plan appropriately and avoid frustration when some leads do not connect.
What Causes Data Decay
- Business closures. Companies fail, owners retire, partnerships dissolve.
- Relocations. Businesses move to new addresses, change phone numbers.
- Staff turnover. Decision-makers change roles, leave companies, or retire.
- Contact updates. New phone systems, email domains, website redesigns.
- Mergers and acquisitions. Companies combine, rebrand, or get absorbed.
The Cumulative Effect
Data decay compounds over time. A database that is 95% accurate today will not stay that way. After 12 months, that same database might be only 70-80% accurate, assuming no maintenance.
Annual Cumulative Decay Example
The Key Insight
Data decay is not a problem to solve once. It is an ongoing process to manage. The most successful outreach operations treat data freshness as a continuous priority, not a one-time purchase. Plan for regular data refresh cycles, and budget accordingly.
Business Closure Rates: The Permanent Decay
US Small Business Survival Statistics
Year 1
of new businesses fail
Year 5
have closed by now
Year 10
have closed by now
Year 15
have closed by now
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Business Employment Dynamics data. These are national averages - rates vary by industry, location, and economic conditions.
Industry Variation in Closure Rates
Highest failure rate of any industry
High competition, thin margins
Lower overhead, more stability
Consistent demand, regulated entry
What This Means for Your Data
- 1Newer businesses decay faster
A list of 1-year-old businesses will have more closures than established ones.
- 2High-risk industries need fresher data
Restaurant and retail lists age poorly. Refresh more frequently.
- 3Established businesses are more stable
A business that survived 10 years is likely to survive the next year.
- 4Economic conditions matter
Recessions accelerate closures. Data from turbulent times decays faster.
Practical Implication
If you have 1,000 business leads and assume an average 8% annual closure rate across industries, you will lose approximately 80 businesses from your list every year just from closures. That is before accounting for phone changes, email bounces, or other contact updates.
Phone Number Changes: The Silent Data Killer
Why Phone Numbers Change
- Business relocations. Moving to a new location often means new numbers, especially across area codes.
- Phone system upgrades. Switching from landlines to VoIP, or changing providers.
- Area code changes. New area codes introduced due to phone number exhaustion.
- Number recycling. Old business numbers get reassigned to new owners.
- Spam blocking. Businesses change numbers to escape persistent spam calls.
Phone Number Decay Rates
Includes disconnected, wrong numbers, and reassigned lines
Consistent monthly degradation of phone data quality
Nearly half your phone data becomes unusable
Phone Data Accuracy Over Time
Visual representation of phone data accuracy degradation over time without maintenance
Mobile vs Landline Considerations
Mobile numbers tend to be more stable than landlines because people keep them when they move. However, mobile numbers for businesses may change more often as employees leave or change roles. For small businesses where the owner's mobile is the primary contact, these tend to be more persistent than business landlines.
Email Address Changes: The Fastest Decay Channel
Email Decays Faster Than Other Data
Email addresses are particularly vulnerable to decay. Industry research suggests B2B email data degrades at approximately 22-30% per year. That means nearly one in four emails in your database will become invalid within 12 months.
This is actually the highest decay rate of any common contact data type. Your email list needs more frequent attention than your phone list.
Why Emails Become Invalid
- 1Employee turnover
When employees leave, their email accounts are typically deactivated. Average job tenure is just 4.1 years.
- 2Company email domain changes
Rebrands, mergers, or moving to new email providers invalidate entire domains.
- 3Mailbox capacity limits
Abandoned or full mailboxes bounce emails even if the address technically exists.
- 4Personal email changes
Small business owners using personal emails may switch providers (Gmail to Outlook, etc.)
Email Bounce Rate Impact
Fresh, well-maintained lists
Data aging, needs attention
Risk of being flagged as spam
High bounce rates damage your sender reputation. Email providers may start blocking your messages entirely, affecting even your valid contacts.
Email Type Decay Comparison
Corporate Emails
Highest decay due to employee turnover at larger companies
Small Business Emails
More stable as owner emails persist, but still significant
Generic Emails
info@, sales@, contact@ persist longer but reach fewer decision-makers
Other Contact Data Changes
Physical Addresses
Address changes are less frequent than phone or email, but when they happen, they often trigger other contact changes as well.
Website URLs
Websites are relatively stable, but rebrands, domain changes, and hosting lapses do occur. Sites marked as "no website" may have built one since.
Contact Names/Titles
Contact names are the most volatile data point. Even if someone stays at the company, titles and roles change frequently.
Data Decay Rate Summary
| Data Type | Monthly Decay | Annual Decay | 2-Year Decay |
|---|---|---|---|
| Email Addresses | 2-3% | 22-30% | 40-50% |
| Contact Names | 1.5-2% | 20-25% | 35-45% |
| Phone Numbers | 1.5-2% | 15-20% | 30-40% |
| Physical Addresses | 0.8-1.2% | 10-15% | 20-30% |
| Business Existence | 0.7-1% | 8-12% | 15-22% |
Rates vary by industry, business size, and economic conditions. These are industry averages based on B2B data research.
Managing Data Decay: Best Practices
Recommended Refresh Cycles
High-Volume Operations
Refresh data quarterly. If you are sending thousands of emails per month, stale data will damage your sender reputation quickly.
Medium-Volume Operations
Refresh data every 6 months. Balance between data freshness and cost efficiency for most operations.
Low-Volume or Selective Outreach
Refresh annually minimum. Even occasional outreach suffers from severely outdated data.
Data Maintenance Tactics
- 1Remove hard bounces immediately
Do not keep emailing invalid addresses. It hurts your sender score.
- 2Track disconnected numbers
Flag and remove numbers that return busy signals or are disconnected.
- 3Use email verification services
Before large campaigns, run lists through verification to catch invalid addresses.
- 4Buy fresh data incrementally
Instead of large annual purchases, buy smaller batches more frequently.
Data Freshness Budget Planning
Approach 1
Not RecommendedBuy once, use all year. By month 6, 15-20% of data is stale. By month 12, approaching 30%.
Approach 2
BetterRefresh mid-year. Data never gets older than 6 months. Same total spend, better average freshness.
Approach 3
RecommendedContinuous refresh. Data never older than 3 months. Highest quality, same total investment.
Setting Realistic Expectations
What NOT to Expect
- 100% accuracy from any data source. Even the best providers have some stale data.
- Data that stays fresh forever. Every database degrades over time.
- Zero bounces or wrong numbers. Some are inevitable regardless of data quality.
- One-time data purchases lasting multiple years. Plan for ongoing refresh.
What to Expect and Plan For
- Fresh data from quality providers: 85-95% accuracy initially.
- Monthly decay of 2-3% requiring ongoing maintenance.
- Some bounces and wrong numbers as part of normal operations.
- Need for regular data refreshes as part of your operational budget.
The Positive Perspective
Data decay sounds negative, but it also means opportunity. As your competitors' old data becomes stale, fresh data gives you an advantage. Businesses that have changed their contact info are now harder for others to reach. If you have updated information, you have less competition for their attention.
Quick Reference: Expected Decay by Timeline
These are cumulative estimates accounting for all decay factors. Your actual experience may vary based on industry and data type.
Summary
Data Decay Is Inevitable
Business data degrades at approximately 2-3% per month on average. This is not a flaw in your data source. It is a fundamental characteristic of business information.
Email Decays Fastest
Email addresses have the highest decay rate at 22-30% annually. Phone numbers and physical addresses are more stable but still require maintenance.
Business Closures Add Up
About 20% of new businesses fail in year one, and roughly 50% fail within five years. This baseline closure rate means permanent data loss regardless of contact updates.
Plan for Ongoing Refresh
Treat data freshness as an operational expense, not a one-time purchase. Quarterly refreshes maintain the best data quality. At minimum, refresh annually.
Understanding data decay transforms your expectations. When some leads do not connect, it is not necessarily a sign of bad data. It is the natural result of an ever-changing business landscape. Plan for it, budget for it, and manage it as part of your ongoing operations.
The most successful outreach operations are not those with zero bounces. They are those that understand decay, maintain their data appropriately, and treat data quality as a continuous priority rather than a one-time purchase.