Break-Even Timeline Simulator
Projects a month-by-month path to break-even by modeling fixed costs, variable costs, and revenue growth. Shows exactly which month cumulative revenue covers cumulative costs and what must happen to get there.
Business - Break Even Timeline Simulator.xlsx
Excel (.xlsx) — No macros — Works in Excel, Google Sheets, LibreOffice
What This Spreadsheet Solves
- No visibility into when the business will stop losing money
- Difficulty modeling how revenue growth rate affects time to break-even
- Inability to see the cash impact of each month before profitability
- Unclear how changes in fixed or variable costs shift the break-even date
- No month-by-month view of the path from loss to profit
Who This Is For
- Startup founders projecting time to profitability
- CFOs presenting break-even analysis to the board
- Project managers evaluating new initiative payback timelines
- Small business owners planning cash needs
Inputs
- $Monthly Fixed Costs
- $Variable Cost per Unit
- $Price per Unit
- #Starting Monthly Units
- %Monthly Unit Growth Rate
Outputs
- Break-Even Month
- Break-Even Units per Month
- Cumulative Loss Until Break-Even
- Monthly Profit/Loss by Month
- Cumulative Cash Flow by Month
- Units Required at Break-Even
How Calculations Work
The model builds a 36-month projection. Each month, it calculates revenue (units times price), variable costs (units times unit cost), and subtracts both variable and fixed costs to get monthly profit or loss. Units grow at the specified rate each month. The break-even month is when cumulative cash flow turns positive. Cumulative loss at break-even shows the total cash needed to survive until that point.
Example Use Case
Scenario: A new product line: $8K/month fixed costs, $12 variable cost per unit, $35 price per unit, starting at 200 units/month with 8% monthly growth.
Result: Break-even month: month 9. Units at break-even: 399/month. Cumulative loss until break-even: $28.4K. After month 9, the product line generates increasing monthly profit.
What You Get — 5 Sheets
Technical Details
Frequently Asked Questions
What if I never reach break-even within 36 months?
The model will report 'Not reached' and show the cumulative loss at month 36. Adjust pricing, costs, or growth rate to find a viable path.
Does this account for seasonality?
Not by default. You can add monthly adjustment factors in CONFIG to increase or decrease volume for seasonal months.
What is the cumulative loss figure used for?
It tells you the minimum cash reserve or funding you need to survive until break-even. It is the deepest point of the cumulative cash flow curve.
Can I change the growth rate after a certain month?
Yes. Override the growth rate for specific months in the LOGIC sheet. For example, set 10% growth for months 1-6 and 5% for months 7-36.
How is this different from break-even volume analysis?
Traditional break-even analysis finds the volume at which revenue equals costs at a point in time. This simulator shows the timeline to reach that volume given a growth trajectory and accumulates the losses along the way.
Download Break-Even Timeline Simulator
Ready to use immediately. Enter your data in the INPUT sheet, see results in OUTPUT.