Cost Inflation Impact
Models how rising input costs affect profit margins over time. Calculates the price adjustments needed to maintain margins and shows where the break-even point shifts under different inflation scenarios.
Risk - Cost Inflation Impact.xlsx
Excel (.xlsx) — No macros — Works in Excel, Google Sheets, LibreOffice
What This Spreadsheet Solves
- Margin erosion from cost increases is not quantified until it hits the P&L
- No model for how much to raise prices to offset inflation
- Break-even volume shifts are invisible without recalculation
- Different cost categories inflate at different rates but are treated uniformly
- No forward-looking view of margin compression under sustained inflation
Who This Is For
- Operations managers tracking input cost trends
- CFOs planning pricing strategy adjustments
- Product managers evaluating cost-driven price changes
- Business owners in cost-sensitive industries (manufacturing, food service, logistics)
Inputs
- $Current Unit Cost
- $Current Selling Price
- %Annual Cost Inflation Rate
- #Monthly Unit Volume
- #Projection Period (Years)
Outputs
- Margin erosion per year without price adjustment
- Required price increase to maintain current margin
- New break-even volume at inflated costs
- Cumulative profit impact over projection period
- Inflation scenario comparison (low/medium/high)
How Calculations Work
The model applies the annual inflation rate to unit costs compounding each year. Margin is recalculated as (price minus inflated cost) divided by price. The required price increase is derived by solving for the price that restores the original margin percentage. Break-even is recalculated as fixed costs divided by the new contribution margin. Three inflation scenarios (low, medium, high) run in parallel for comparison.
Example Use Case
Scenario: Current unit cost: $24. Selling price: $40. Cost inflation: 6%/year. Volume: 2,000 units/month. Projection: 3 years.
Result: Year 1 margin drops from 40% to 36.2% without price adjustment. Year 3 margin: 28.5%. Required price increase to maintain 40% margin: $2.40 in year 1, cumulative $7.60 by year 3 ($47.60). Break-even shifts from 1,200 to 1,480 units/month by year 3.
What You Get — 5 Sheets
Technical Details
Frequently Asked Questions
Can I set different inflation rates for different cost components?
Yes. The CONFIG sheet allows you to break unit cost into components (materials, labor, overhead) and assign individual inflation rates to each.
Does this account for volume changes from price increases?
The base model holds volume constant. Enable price elasticity in CONFIG to model volume decline when prices increase, which gives a more realistic profit projection.
How often should I update the inflation rate?
Quarterly, using actual cost data from recent purchases. Inflation rates change and using outdated assumptions will produce inaccurate projections.
What if I cannot raise prices?
The model shows margin erosion without price changes. Use this to quantify the cost and evaluate alternatives: volume increase, cost reduction, or product reformulation.
Is this useful for service businesses?
Yes. Replace unit cost with cost-to-serve (labor hours times rate, plus overhead). The inflation mechanics apply the same way to service delivery costs.
Download Cost Inflation Impact
Ready to use immediately. Enter your data in the INPUT sheet, see results in OUTPUT.