Revenue Sensitivity Analyzer
Identifies which input variables have the greatest impact on revenue through sensitivity analysis. Produces tornado charts showing sensitivity coefficients and defines the thresholds where revenue targets become unachievable.
Risk - Revenue Sensitivity Analyzer.xlsx
Excel (.xlsx) — No macros — Works in Excel, Google Sheets, LibreOffice
What This Spreadsheet Solves
- Too many variables affect revenue with no clear priority ranking
- Strategic focus is diluted across low-impact activities
- Revenue forecast assumptions are not stress-tested individually
- Tornado analysis is needed but not available without custom modeling
- Threshold points where revenue goals become impossible are undefined
Who This Is For
- Revenue operations teams prioritizing growth levers
- CFOs stress-testing budget assumptions
- Sales leaders understanding which metrics matter most
- Strategic planners allocating resources to highest-impact areas
Inputs
- $Revenue Target
- $Average Deal Size
- #Monthly Lead Volume
- %Conversion Rate
- %Customer Retention Rate
- $Average Revenue Per User
Outputs
- Sensitivity coefficient per input variable
- Tornado chart ranking variables by impact
- Revenue range for +/-10% change in each variable
- Threshold values where revenue target is missed
- Top 3 highest-impact levers for revenue growth
How Calculations Work
The analyzer holds all variables constant except one, then varies it by +/-10% (or a configurable range) and measures the resulting change in revenue. The sensitivity coefficient is the percentage change in revenue divided by the percentage change in the input variable. Variables are ranked by coefficient magnitude to produce a tornado chart. Thresholds are calculated by solving for the value of each variable that causes revenue to fall below the target.
Example Use Case
Scenario: Revenue target: $1.2M/year. Average deal size: $8,500. Lead volume: 200/month. Conversion rate: 12%. Retention rate: 85%. ARPU: $425/month.
Result: Sensitivity ranking: 1) Conversion rate (coefficient 1.0 — 10% increase in conversion yields 10% more revenue), 2) Lead volume (0.95), 3) ARPU (0.82), 4) Deal size (0.65), 5) Retention (0.58). Revenue target is missed if conversion drops below 9.8% or lead volume below 178/month.
What You Get — 5 Sheets
Technical Details
Frequently Asked Questions
What if variables are correlated?
The one-at-a-time method assumes independence. If variables are correlated (e.g., more leads but lower conversion), the results show directional impact but may overestimate combined effects. Use scenario analysis for correlated changes.
Can I add custom revenue variables?
Yes. Add variables in the INPUT sheet with their baseline values. Update the revenue formula in LOGIC to include the new variable, and the sensitivity engine will incorporate it automatically.
Why is the tornado chart useful?
It visually ranks what matters most. Resources should focus on the widest bars (highest sensitivity). Narrow bars indicate variables where changes have minimal revenue impact.
What does a sensitivity coefficient of 1.0 mean?
A coefficient of 1.0 means a 10% change in that variable produces a 10% change in revenue (proportional impact). Coefficients above 1.0 indicate amplified impact; below 1.0 indicate dampened impact.
How do I use the threshold values?
Thresholds define the floor for each variable. If any variable drops below its threshold, the revenue target is mathematically unachievable regardless of other variables' performance. Monitor these as early warning indicators.
Download Revenue Sensitivity Analyzer
Ready to use immediately. Enter your data in the INPUT sheet, see results in OUTPUT.