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    Sales

    Monthly Revenue Forecast

    Generates a monthly revenue forecast by weighting pipeline deals by their probability of closing. Includes confidence intervals and tracks forecast accuracy over time to improve future predictions.

    Sales - Monthly Revenue Forecast.xlsx

    Excel (.xlsx) — No macros — Works in Excel, Google Sheets, LibreOffice

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    What This Spreadsheet Solves

    • Revenue forecasts based on gut feeling instead of pipeline data
    • No probability weighting applied to different deal stages
    • Inability to provide a range estimate rather than a single number
    • No mechanism to track and improve forecast accuracy over time
    • Disconnect between CRM pipeline data and financial projections

    Who This Is For

    • Sales directors building monthly and quarterly forecasts
    • CFOs planning cash flow around expected revenue
    • Revenue operations teams responsible for forecast accuracy
    • Board members reviewing revenue projections

    Inputs

    • textDeal Name
    • $Deal Value
    • %Close Probability
    • dateExpected Close Date
    • textDeal Stage

    Outputs

    • Weighted Revenue Forecast (monthly)
    • Best Case Revenue
    • Worst Case Revenue
    • Forecast Confidence Interval
    • Deals Expected to Close by Month
    • Forecast vs. Actual Variance (historical)

    How Calculations Work

    Each deal's value is multiplied by its close probability to produce a weighted amount. Deals are grouped by expected close month. Monthly weighted totals form the base forecast. The confidence interval applies a historical accuracy factor: best case assumes all probable deals close, worst case applies a discount based on past over-forecasting. Actuals can be entered retroactively to calculate variance and calibrate future forecasts.

    Example Use Case

    Scenario: Pipeline for March: Deal A ($50K, 80% probability), Deal B ($30K, 50%), Deal C ($100K, 20%), Deal D ($25K, 90%). Historical forecast accuracy: 85%.

    Result: Weighted forecast: $87.5K. Best case: $205K. Worst case (85% accuracy applied): $74.4K. Confidence interval: $74.4K-$87.5K. Two deals (A and D) are high-probability and drive $62.5K of the weighted forecast.

    What You Get — 5 Sheets

    READMEExplains weighted forecasting methodology, how confidence intervals are derived, and how to enter actuals for accuracy tracking.
    INPUTEnter each deal with its value, probability, expected close date, and current stage.
    LOGICWeights each deal, groups by month, calculates base forecast, applies historical accuracy to derive confidence intervals.
    OUTPUTDisplays monthly forecast table, confidence range, deal-level breakdown, and forecast vs. actual tracking chart.
    CONFIGSet default probabilities by stage, define the confidence interval method, and enter historical actuals for accuracy calibration.

    Technical Details

    File Format:.xlsx (Open XML)
    Macros:None — pure formulas
    Compatibility:Excel 2016+, Google Sheets, LibreOffice
    Input Cells:Clearly marked with blue background
    Formulas:All outputs are live Excel formulas
    Protection:LOGIC sheet formulas protected, INPUT cells editable

    Frequently Asked Questions

    Should I use rep-entered probabilities or stage-based defaults?

    Stage-based defaults are more consistent and reduce individual bias. Override only when a rep has specific deal intelligence that justifies a different probability.

    How is the confidence interval calculated?

    The lower bound applies the historical accuracy ratio to the weighted forecast. The upper bound uses the full weighted forecast. If you have no historical data, a default 80% accuracy factor is applied.

    How do I enter actuals to track accuracy?

    At month-end, enter actual closed revenue in the CONFIG sheet. The model calculates the variance and updates the rolling accuracy ratio used for future confidence intervals.

    Can I forecast by product line or sales rep?

    Add product line or rep as a column in INPUT. The OUTPUT sheet can be filtered by either dimension.

    What if a deal slips to the next month?

    Update the expected close date in INPUT. The model automatically moves it to the correct month in the forecast.

    Download Monthly Revenue Forecast

    Ready to use immediately. Enter your data in the INPUT sheet, see results in OUTPUT.

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